Month: May 2023

Weekly Update

Retail Sales, Unemployment, and Those Irrepressible FAANGs

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Published May 26, 2023

 

Below are excerpts from Blaine Rollins’ latest collection of market and economic observations and data. There continues to be an extraordinary lack of consensus around any market narrative. Thus, we keep chopping around mostly sideways in the broad market while the heavy-hitters of the market are perceived as the safest bet to make in the stock market. Stocks have strong competition also as short-term debt instruments offer 5%+ returns for little to no risk. At some point, this all breaks down. But that breakdown could well be a surge of money into the rest of the stock market which one of Blaine’s sources below shows is rather cheap these days. Given that such an outcome is talked about relatively little, perhaps it’s the most likely destination for stocks? (more…)

Weekly Update

What if the Recession Has Already Happened?

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Published May 19, 2023

There is no shortage of commentary and hand-wringing about a coming recession. In the piece below, one Fidelity analyst posits that the recession may have already occurred. Here is Denise Chisholm’s analysis:

“Did we already have a hard landing? The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) hasn’t officially called a recession, but signs suggest that we may have already had a fairly bad one. One of the most consistent recession indicators has been a contraction in real wages (adjusted for inflation), which happened in every recession since 1962 except the 2020 COVID shutdown (chart hereunder). Real wages declined throughout 2022—falling more than they did during the Great Recession—as inflation outpaced wage growth. Real wage growth may have bottomed last fall; a rebound could provide a tailwind for the economy and the stock market. (more…)

Uncategorized

Email Spoofing Warning

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Published May 12, 2023

 

We want to take a moment to talk about email spoofing and how to protect yourself from it. Email spoofing is when someone sends an email that appears to be from a trusted source, like us, but is actually from a fraudulent account. These emails often contain links that lead to phishing websites or malware downloads, which can compromise your personal and financial information.

At TimingCube, we take your security seriously, and we want to assure you that our notifications requesting a change of personal information will never include a link in them. Instead, our emails will always request that you log in to our site to perform any actions. This is because we want to ensure that you are accessing our site securely and that you are protected from any potential email spoofing attempts.

If you receive an email that claims to be from us, asking for personal information change with a link, please do not click on the link or provide any information. Instead, please contact us immediately to report the incident so we can take appropriate action to protect you and our other customers.

Thank you for your attention to this important matter. We remain committed to providing you with the best possible service and security.

(more…)

Weekly Update

Markets Chopping Amidst Furious Uncertainty

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Published May 5, 2023

 

Markets continue to slog their way back and forth within a fairly tight range, bouncing between scenarios for a recession (or not), interest rate pauses from the Fed (or not), and just what is happening with the banks(!). Mixed signals abound. Despite corporate earnings coming in well above fears, the uncertainties noted keep investors from pursuing any consistent meaningful direction. (more…)