Published October 24, 2025
The article from Delta Research below discusses the odd intersection between consumer sentiment, labor markets, and stock prices. What is good for Wall Street right now might not be good for Main Street. (more…)
unemployment rate
Upside To Hiring Brings Cheer to Market Outlooks
Published October 11, 2024
Below we summarize from a recent Blaine Rollins post to highlight the ripple effect of last week’s surprisingly positive monthly jobs report.
“Nothing like a positively surprising set of economic numbers to put everyone in a good mood. The 4.05% unemployment rate combined with a +100k beat in the non-farm payroll figure is going to put the Fed’s dour year end jobs projections in jeopardy. (more…)
Labor Market Details Reveal a Weakening Condition
Published July 15, 2022
Last week we noted that some economists argue we are not approaching (or in) recession because the labor market is too strong to suggest that. This week, we follow Schwab’s Liz Ann Sonders as she takes a deep dive into the state of the labor market and comes to a different conclusion, namely that the labor market, though strong, has been trending weaker. Here’s Schwab’s Sonders with all kinds of analysis to back up her view. (more…)
Not a “Real” Recession
Published July 8, 2022
At some point, all the bad news gets priced into stocks. We will see if that has happened in the coming weeks when companies report their quarterly earnings. The bearish market case says that falling corporate earnings are the next shoe to drop. The bullish case points to a myriad of seasonal factors, such as mid-term election market history, to suggest that the worst is behind us in stocks. (more…)
Consumer Sentiment Reaches Extreme Levels
Published June 24, 2022
While no one has any clue which way the stock market goes from here, what we do know is that the magnitude of negative sentiment is extreme. The last time we saw consumer sentiment at these levels was in 1980, a dismal period for the economy. The current sentiment reading seems very much at odds with what’s really going on in the economy. (more…)
This Weird Job Market
Published December 31, 2021
We can think of few other aspects of life that have changed so dramatically from the pandemic as employment and the job market. Radiating outward from the changes in the job market, wages are the most critical component of inflation, a huge buzzword in 2021. If wages have been permanently kick-started into a regime of growth, then inflation will remain far more than a transitory influence in the economy and markets. (more…)