S&P500

Weekly Update

Optimism for a Post-War Rally

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Published April 3, 2026

 

Delta Research makes the case below for a sharp rally once the War with Iran ends. Complicating their case is the market’s shift to a flat interest rate environment as hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts have largely vanished with the war. (more…)

Weekly Update

Looking Ahead to 2026

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Published December 5, 2025

 

Below we offer Delta Research’s 2026 Market Outlook. This overview is relatively brief and offers a good review of markets, their valuations, and their driving forces. Like all years, we expect 2026 will carry the usual mix of good market days and bad, rallies and pullbacks. Our models seek to keep you on the right side of the market regardless of whether it’s rising or falling, to protect your capital in down markets and participate meaningfully in upside markets. Enjoy this market overview! (more…)

Weekly Update

Summer Doldrums for the Market

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Published August 25, 2023

 

As summer winds down, we have seen August play out in its usual way so far – weak. Here with more comment on recent market moves is Delta Research:

“In the past three months, the 10-year US treasury rate climbed by more than 15%. The sharp move higher during the month of August took the 10-year rate to the highest level its been since November 2007. As treasuries moved higher in August, stocks traded lower. The S&P 500 declined from August 1 to the Friday low of last week by 5.5% and the NASDAQ 100 was down 6.7%. (more…)

Weekly Update

The January Trifecta Indicator

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Published January 27, 2023

 

Back in January 2013, the Stock Traders Almanac created the “January Indicator Trifecta” by combining three indicators that occur over a five week period: 1) the Santa Claus Rally indicator, 2) the First Five Days Early Warning System and 3) the full-month January Barometer reading.

When all three of the “January Indicator Trifecta” readings are up the S&P 500 has closed the year with a gain 90% of the time, 28 of 31 years, with an average gain of 17.5%.

When any of the three are down the year’s results are reduced.

When all three are down, the S&P is down almost half the time (down 3 of 8 years with an average loss of -3.6%). (more…)

Weekly Update

2023 Outlook – Part 1

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Published December 9, 2022

 

The 2023 market outlooks are beginning to flow. Below is an overview of next year possibilities put together by Delta.

“Since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC, 2008-09), the stock market trended higher on low interest rates, double digit GDP growth in China, and robust non-cyclical growth from the major technology companies. What would happen if the Fed Funds rate jumped from zero to 4% in a single year? What would happen if China’s GDP growth became hobbled by non-stop Covid lockdowns? What would happen if big-cap technology stocks stopped offering consistent earnings growth and became the worst performing major segment of the U.S. stock market? (more…)

Weekly Update

Market Recovers to Resistance

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Published August 5, 2022

 

 

The stock market is at a crossroads having recovered the entirety of its June plunge. Prior to that plunge, stocks ran in place for several days as the bulls and bears fought mightily. That standoff was won by the bears, and the plunge ensued. The counter-rally, once it got going, has been almost as swift. (more…)

Weekly Update

The Stock Market-Economy Connection

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Published March 12, 2021

Below is the most recent analysis from Schwab’s Liz Ann Sonders. While some have struggled with the seeming disconnect between the stock market and economy over the past year, Ms. Sonders outlines how the market and economy have been much more in sync than we might realize. (more…)