Published September 6, 2024
Below, we offer a few takes on recent market moves and the outlook for the next couple of months.
With a volatile August and a swift decline to start September, investors are feeling uneasy.
The chart below shows that September is the worst month of the year and the only one with a negative average return. (more…)
Published August 23, 2024
The market is eagerly awaiting the commencement of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts next month. The sharp, nonstop rebound from the August selloff provides ample evidence of investor enthusiasm for the upcoming cuts. Market interest rates have fallen back to where they were 18 months ago. The chart below shows how the yield curve has changed over the past year. The left side of the curve displays very short-term rates (1 month to 1 year) which are driven by the Fed. They have been anchored to the Fed’s 5.25% short-term target rate while the longer-term rates have fallen notably.
Published November 4, 2022
Stock investors had a bit of a panic attack this week. The Fed Chair Jerome Powell continued hammering markets with his inflation-fighting warrior pose, a pose that most all market-watchers now agree he was late in adopting. Powell is making up for lost time, of course, by ratcheting up interest rates at a breakneck pace. The sudden acceleration has been a very cold shower for some business processes with private equity and venture capital investors reducing their activity by a third or more in the most recent quarter. (more…)
Published April 15, 2022
This week, with all the talk about inverted yield curves and interest rates, we shift our attention from stocks to the newfound misery experienced in the bond market. Money is leaving bonds and rolling into any stock with a tasty yield – e.g. dividend and utility stocks, real estate. (more…)