Recession

Weekly Update

Looking Ahead to 2026

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Published December 5, 2025

 

Below we offer Delta Research’s 2026 Market Outlook. This overview is relatively brief and offers a good review of markets, their valuations, and their driving forces. Like all years, we expect 2026 will carry the usual mix of good market days and bad, rallies and pullbacks. Our models seek to keep you on the right side of the market regardless of whether it’s rising or falling, to protect your capital in down markets and participate meaningfully in upside markets. Enjoy this market overview! (more…)

Weekly Update

Rally Back to Resistance

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Published April 25, 2025

 

Stocks are looking to bounce back from a horrid beginning of April. The S&P 500 has rallied back to the “scene of the crime” where it broke down decisively at 550-560. Is there enough momentum to push through the resistance AND above the 200-day (40-week) moving average at 570? That’s what technical market analysts are looking for. (more…)

Weekly Update

Recession or No?

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Published March 28, 2025

 

As Delta Research outlines below, whether the recent struggles in the stock market are just a typical pullback or something larger rests with what ultimately happens to the economy. The widely-followed GDPNow economic forecast shows the economy shrinking in the first quarter. The question is whether that weakness will continue into the middle part of the year. (more…)

Weekly Update

What’s Going On With Interest Rates?

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Published March 7, 2025

For much of the past four years investors have focused on inflation and the Federal Reserve’s fight against it. While the Fed only controls the very short-term interest rate, their words about potential future Fed moves affect interest rates much further out in time.

In December, the Fed surprised investors by pulling back on expectations for coming interest rate cuts. Inflation has stabilized albeit at levels that might be higher than the Fed would like. But over the past two weeks, interest rates have suddenly fallen sharply, appearing to diverge from the Fed-driven path. (more…)

Weekly Update

Will 2025 Bring a Recession?

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Published November 8, 2024

 

A two-year long bull market environment has pushed stock market valuations to the upper end of the typical range. Leuthold Group’s Doug Ramsey posted the following note highlighting what concerns him with stock at this level: (more…)

Weekly Update

What if the Recession Has Already Happened?

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Published May 19, 2023

There is no shortage of commentary and hand-wringing about a coming recession. In the piece below, one Fidelity analyst posits that the recession may have already occurred. Here is Denise Chisholm’s analysis:

“Did we already have a hard landing? The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) hasn’t officially called a recession, but signs suggest that we may have already had a fairly bad one. One of the most consistent recession indicators has been a contraction in real wages (adjusted for inflation), which happened in every recession since 1962 except the 2020 COVID shutdown (chart hereunder). Real wages declined throughout 2022—falling more than they did during the Great Recession—as inflation outpaced wage growth. Real wage growth may have bottomed last fall; a rebound could provide a tailwind for the economy and the stock market. (more…)

Weekly Update

Markets Chopping Amidst Furious Uncertainty

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Published May 5, 2023

 

Markets continue to slog their way back and forth within a fairly tight range, bouncing between scenarios for a recession (or not), interest rate pauses from the Fed (or not), and just what is happening with the banks(!). Mixed signals abound. Despite corporate earnings coming in well above fears, the uncertainties noted keep investors from pursuing any consistent meaningful direction. (more…)

Weekly Update

Late Cycle Economics and a Stagnant Market

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Published April 21, 2023

 

Fidelity provided an update on where they see global economics this week. The nation’s largest administrator of 401k plans finds much of the world in late-cycle growth mode where credit gets tighter, earnings struggle, and economic growth slows. The next step is recession, which is what the vast majority of the economic watchers have been projecting for some time now. (more…)

Weekly Update

Stronger Economic Growth – Good and Bad for Markets

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Published February 17, 2023

 

Below, our friends from Delta offer a summary of recent data which shows the economy being stronger than many expected. But that strength is pushing interest rates upward in a renewed push. The upward thrust in rates could well undo the stock market rally so far in 2023. Broad market analysts remain very split over the outlook for the economy and markets. We think now is a particularly important time to have a tactical approach to investing, with the ability to quickly adjust to changing conditions. Our models offer just such an approach. (more…)

Weekly Update

What Happens to the Market if We Have a Recession?

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Published December 30, 2022

 

Below is a high-level summary of the past year and potential decline levels for the S&P 500 if a recession comes about. Thanks to the folks at Delta for the summary information and to our friend Ravi Palaiyanur for the bottom chart.

“Two of the most robust, leading indicators of recession are the inverted yield curve and a negative six-month moving average of the Leading Economic Index (LEI). The six-month moving average of the LEI turned negative in June and the 2yr/10yr treasury inverted in July. (more…)