Published January 22, 2021
One reason for the surging stock market recovery over the past nine months, despite extraordinary unemployment, has been the shift from spending to saving among a broad swath of the population. (more…)
Recession
The Drop in the U.S. Dollar Could Shift the Investment Landscape
Published July 31, 2020
There has been a lot of attention recently about the sharp drop in the price of the U.S. dollar. This decline has sent gold and other commodity prices soaring. Driving this decline in the dollar is a quicker recovery in economies outside the U.S., last week’s coordinated stimulus action by the European Union (which bolsters the Euro), and the zero interest rate policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve for as long as the eye can see. To put this in context, until recently, the dollar enjoyed a very long run of strength as Europe and Japan struggled. (more…)
If History Is Our Guide, This Bear Market Is Just Getting Started
Published April 3, 2020
There are many stories already in this bear market. Below, we present a few that might be of interest. First, we take a look at our focus index, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ). The line across the middle notes the price point ($195) where this index broke out back in November to begin a four month rally. That breakout ran fast and hard. We now trade below that breakout point. In fact, it served as a point of resistance (aka net selling) to halt the most recent rebound effort. (more…)
Crazy Market Provides Profit Opportunities
Published March 20, 2020
As we go to press here on Thursday, it’s been five full weeks since we had two consecutive positive days in the stock market. Over the past four weeks the S&P 500 has lost 1000 points (an almost -30% drop). That’s an astoundingly bearish run. (more…)
The Coming Recession
Published March 13, 2020
This week the stock market made it crystal clear that it is fully expecting a recession in the coming months. Markets have delivered the second fastest decline in history, second only to a drop during the Great Depression. (more…)
How Emotion Drives the Economy
Published September 20, 2019
Finance, and investing even more so, are resting on the foundation of human emotion. How much a stock is worth certainly has some underpinning in the company’s earnings. But perhaps more important is the price-earnings or P/E ratio, which is how much investors are willing to PAY for those earnings. (more…)
The Dreaded Yield Curve Inversion
Published August 16, 2019
Like a surfer bounced by wave upon wave, investors were hit this week by a second wave. After a one day burst of market joy as the Trump Administration dialed back the September 1st imposition of trade tariffs, the U.S. Treasury bond market was rocked by a deeper reduction in yields. (more…)
Oh That Inversion? No Big Deal
Published April 5, 2019
Markets have very quickly put behind them the whole inverted yield curve fear. It lasted all of a couple of days. The cold water was poured on that fear when Chinese manufacturing posted a surprisingly high reading, reversing months of declines. (more…)
Markets Will Continue to Encounter Lots of Fog
Published January 18, 2019
We find the folks at Schwab, led by Liz Ann Sonders, to provide a good overview of the intersection of markets and the economy. Below is their most recent analysis – a bit lengthy. But we think it’s worthwhile. Enjoy! (more…)
The Year in TimingCube
Published December 28, 2018
In January of this year, no one would have guessed it would end like this. (more…)
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