Recession

Weekly Update

Stronger Economic Growth – Good and Bad for Markets

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Published February 17, 2023

 

Below, our friends from Delta offer a summary of recent data which shows the economy being stronger than many expected. But that strength is pushing interest rates upward in a renewed push. The upward thrust in rates could well undo the stock market rally so far in 2023. Broad market analysts remain very split over the outlook for the economy and markets. We think now is a particularly important time to have a tactical approach to investing, with the ability to quickly adjust to changing conditions. Our models offer just such an approach. (more…)

Weekly Update

What Happens to the Market if We Have a Recession?

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Published December 30, 2022

 

Below is a high-level summary of the past year and potential decline levels for the S&P 500 if a recession comes about. Thanks to the folks at Delta for the summary information and to our friend Ravi Palaiyanur for the bottom chart.

“Two of the most robust, leading indicators of recession are the inverted yield curve and a negative six-month moving average of the Leading Economic Index (LEI). The six-month moving average of the LEI turned negative in June and the 2yr/10yr treasury inverted in July. (more…)

Weekly Update

Investors Love Powell’s Softer Tone

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Published December 2, 2022

Investors increasingly believe the Federal Reserve has seen peak inflation and, recession or no, will very soon pause their interest rate hikes. Stock markets are responding as if the market has bottomed; with the question now how slow 2023 global economies will be. While employment layoffs are regularly in the news, labor markets remain strong with metrics of consumer activity holding at high levels. At worst, the economic data has become mixed, compelling investors to shift away from the hand-wringing that characterized the late Summer/early Fall. China appears to have pulled back on the most restrictive Covid measures. Supply chain issues have all but disappeared. The FTX crypto implosion looks to be limited to the landscape of crypto companies and investors, not spreading outward to threaten any systemic trouble. Investors now seem to look forward to a 2023 without the storm clouds they once feared. (more…)

Weekly Update

Searching for the Market’s Low Point

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Published November 25, 2022

 

The stock market began its decline one year ago. We posted the first chart below around that time to point out the danger ahead from the failed break higher in smallcap stocks.

Since that failed breakout, we have seen an absolute assault on markets by the Federal Reserve with interest rates being raised at an almost unprecedented pace. The short-term 2-year interest rate has jumped from near zero to 4.50% in twelve months (second chart). (more…)

Weekly Update

Corporate Earnings Are the Next Shoe to Drop

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Published October 14, 2022

 

Investors await corporate earnings data over the next few weeks with concerns high that declining earnings outlooks will be the next shoe to drop on stocks. The chart below highlights where we have been on corporate earnings and how things have changed. (more…)

Weekly Update

The Market Sans Energy Is Not So Pretty

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Published August 26, 2022

 

With summer winding down, we await the post-Labor Day return of a fuller market trading pattern to provide better clues of investor thinking. In the meantime, the summary below from Delta offers a good overview of the current economic data.

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Weekly Update

Bulls and Bears in a Massive Tussle

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Published August 19, 2022

 

It has been quite a long time since we have seen such disparity in the narratives flowing down Wall Street. How long and hard the Fed will tighten rates is one source of contention. But it’s not the biggest. That would belong to where corporate earnings are headed, which is sort of a Street barometer for whether or not the economy falls into a recession (how deep that recession is a third dimension discussion floating around also). (more…)

Weekly Update

Labor Market Details Reveal a Weakening Condition

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Published July 15, 2022

 

Last week we noted that some economists argue we are not approaching (or in) recession because the labor market is too strong to suggest that. This week, we follow Schwab’s Liz Ann Sonders as she takes a deep dive into the state of the labor market and comes to a different conclusion, namely that the labor market, though strong, has been trending weaker. Here’s Schwab’s Sonders with all kinds of analysis to back up her view. (more…)

Uncategorized

Doom and Gloom

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Published June 17, 2022

 

Investors got what they thought they wanted this week when the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates by a full 0.75% and talked even tougher about fighting inflation. But a little post-rate hike relief rally gave way to yet another selloff the following day.

Investors have quickly shifted from worrying about inflation to fully embracing talk of a recession and downward revisions in corporate earnings. By many accounts, the recession is already here. It certainly felt gloomy and heavy in markets this week. (more…)

Weekly Update

Is the Market Selloff Overdone?

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Published May 27, 2022

After seven weeks of declines, the stock market finally found some buyers this week. Still, the trend remains down. The comments below from Delta Research provide a couple of charts to frame the recent declines and what might lie ahead for the stock market in the coming months. (more…)