rate hikes

Weekly Update

Corporate Earnings Reports Begin with a Thud

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Published April 19, 2024

 

Markets have fixated on interest rates and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy for the past few years. Rate hikes led to the stock market’s swoon in 2022. The end of those hikes brought a new rally in 2023 that carried into the first quarter of this year. Below is a great overview from the Wall Street Journal on how economists’ views of interest rates and the economy have evolved and where they currently stand. Investors remain obsessed by the timing of the initial Fed rate cut. (more…)

Weekly Update

What Happens to the Market if We Have a Recession?

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Published December 30, 2022

 

Below is a high-level summary of the past year and potential decline levels for the S&P 500 if a recession comes about. Thanks to the folks at Delta for the summary information and to our friend Ravi Palaiyanur for the bottom chart.

“Two of the most robust, leading indicators of recession are the inverted yield curve and a negative six-month moving average of the Leading Economic Index (LEI). The six-month moving average of the LEI turned negative in June and the 2yr/10yr treasury inverted in July. (more…)