Published January 13, 2023
Stocks have been moving higher. What began in Europe, spread to China, and is now beginning to show up elsewhere. Here are some charts displaying the shift in market tone in these areas. First up, a clear uptrend has formed over the past 3+ months in Europe. Fears of a natural gas shortage during the winter simply did not materialize. (more…)
Published December 9, 2022
The 2023 market outlooks are beginning to flow. Below is an overview of next year possibilities put together by Delta.
“Since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC, 2008-09), the stock market trended higher on low interest rates, double digit GDP growth in China, and robust non-cyclical growth from the major technology companies. What would happen if the Fed Funds rate jumped from zero to 4% in a single year? What would happen if China’s GDP growth became hobbled by non-stop Covid lockdowns? What would happen if big-cap technology stocks stopped offering consistent earnings growth and became the worst performing major segment of the U.S. stock market? (more…)
Published February 25, 2022
This week’s acceleration of market turmoil had us reaching back into the bag for a little history. Below is a table of single-day declines in the S&P 500. First, note how clustered these selloffs are; all but one taking place around three major events – the global financial crisis, the pandemic, and 1987 market crash. (more…)
Published January 7, 2022
Markets have kicked off 2022 with a bit of a bang. Interest rates have surged higher as investors bet that the Federal Reserve will act quickly to tamp down nascent inflation and return interest rates to their pre-pandemic levels. (more…)
Published November 19, 2021
Here at TimingCube we are focused on the Nasdaq 100 index, trading with the symbol QQQ. This index typically contains the most innovative and “high tech” companies in the stock market with a strong bent toward technology and consumer services. Schwab recently posted an article outlining the pros and cons of the broad tech sector, which has a very high correlation to the QQQ. We thought you might find it interesting. (more…)
Published November 12, 2021
This week’s inflation numbers put a little (temporary?) scare in the markets. But the one-day jump in interest rates did not even offset the past two weeks’ worth of yield declines. (more…)
Published July 23, 2021
We thought a recent article by David Keller on the various types of market corrections might be of interest. Here it is with some recast charts we provide to assist:
“As the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indexes have pounded away at new all-time highs basically every month in 2021, investors are left to wonder when a correction may actually be coming. We were taught that markets do not just go straight up, but instead they move in a series of impulse moves and corrective reactions as the overall trend continues. But 2021 has very much been the exception to that rule of market trends! (more…)
Published June 18, 2021
This year’s stock market has been all about rotation with money moving into value stocks and out of growth stocks. The narrative has been that rising inflation would push up interest rates. The hike in rates in turn raises the denominator of the classic stock price valuation (e.g. earnings/interest rates) which devalues high-flying growth stocks. The beneficiaries of this narrative have been cyclical sectors like materials, industrials, and energy. This week that narrative took a beating. (more…)
Published May 21, 2021
Taking a step back this week to consider the broad market and the substantial changes that have been going on under the surface. At surface level, the broad market S&P 500 remains close to its all-time highs while our favored Nasdaq 100 index, heavy with tech and consumer stocks, has been choppy over the past four months.
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Published April 2, 2021
This week’s market action reminds us that April is often a favorable month for investors, particularly for tech/consumer stocks. This week, those stocks look to have begun a rebound from their March rest period. Over the past 15 years, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has posted a gain 80% of the time in April, making it the second most reliably strong month for this index. (more…)