Published April 2, 2021
This week’s market action reminds us that April is often a favorable month for investors, particularly for tech/consumer stocks. This week, those stocks look to have begun a rebound from their March rest period. Over the past 15 years, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has posted a gain 80% of the time in April, making it the second most reliably strong month for this index. (more…)
Published July 3, 2020
At TimingCube our focus market index is the Nasdaq 100, traded under the symbol QQQ. The Nasdaq 100 contains the 100 largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange, a purely electronic exchange that was founded in 1971. This focus on non-financial companies has served the index well over the past 30 years, a period dominated by growth in technology and electronic commerce. (more…)
Published May 29, 2020
Bullish markets are characterized by sector rotation. There are always sectors that consistently lead the way. But investors can only push a single stock or sector’s valuation so high. To keep the bullish fires burning bright, they eventually have to find other sectors attractive enough to invest in. This week we saw a couple of powerful days of sector rotation. The stocks that had been beaten down the most suddenly became the stars of the show. The stocks that had been favored got sold off, at least for a few hours. (more…)
Published May 22, 2020
The stock market has rallied hard off the March 23rd bottom, surprising almost everyone in the strength and lift of the move. This rally has brought the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) back to positive on the year, a stunning development given the dire economic situation. That positive year-to-date print for the Nasdaq reflects the seeming fact that Covid-19 has served to accelerate trends which benefit these top companies of the digital economy – e.g. Amazon, Facebook, Google. That the Russell 2000 small-cap index remains down almost -20% year-to-date, while the equally-weighted version of the S&P 500 is down -16%, is perhaps a better stock market gauge of the overall economy’s troubles. (more…)
Published May 31, 2019
At the beginning of this month of May we concluded our weekly blog with the following:
“Were smaller, riskier stocks to find strength, it would be a real boost to the market’s rally effort as there is clearly some “wall of worry” built into this market.”
By the end of the month, the market’s answer was clear: there would be no boost from small and midcap stocks. (more…)
Published October 12, 2018
The past few days have seen the stock market fall back hard with the S&P 500 moving from new highs to piercing its 200-day moving average in a shocking 5-day torrent of selling. (more…)
Published July 20, 2018
Through the first half of the year, only three sectors outperformed the broad market – technology, consumer, and energy. (more…)
Published June 29, 2018
International and emerging market stocks have displayed disturbing action recently, failing to hold support, giving up a two-year rally, and accelerating a notable downtrend. The chart below highlights the crossover of the 50 and 200-day moving averages. We see on the left side of the chart the circle and line highlighting the prior crossover for emerging markets back in mid-2015. (more…)
Published June 15, 2018
Our favored Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has been marching strongly upward, along with the small-cap Russell 2000, breaking to new highs and continuing to find buyers. Unlike 2017, however, this market strength is not so broad-based. International stocks have been flat, with the rising U.S. dollar keeping the pressure on those indexes.
Published June 7, 2018
The summer heat has arrived in force here in Austin over the past couple of weeks. Our focus Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) index has also been hot, emerging from a three-month market correction to break out to new highs recently. The commentary below from the team at Charles Schwab does a good job of outlining some of the major positives and negatives the market wrestles with these days. We hope you find it informative.
(more…)