Published October 24, 2025
The article from Delta Research below discusses the odd intersection between consumer sentiment, labor markets, and stock prices. What is good for Wall Street right now might not be good for Main Street. (more…)
lower interest rates
Sour Consumers Presage Higher Stock Prices
Published June 6, 2025
While stock market valuations are clearly on the high side and there is no shortage of economic angst in the air, there is one indicator that is foretelling strong stock market gains ahead. Consumer sentiment has been tanking since the pandemic hit in early 2020. After recovering in 2023, sentiment has soured once again with the economic uncertainty of 2025. Delta Research recently posted a chart of consumer sentiment noting that a very low consumer sentiment reading leads to buoyant stock gains over the ensuing twelve months. Fueling this move in stocks could be an economy that holds up better than anticipated while inflation remains steady, giving the Fed room to lower interest rates. (more…)
Election Year Performance
Published January 26, 2024
Below we offer a couple of recent summary reports from Delta Research. We hope you find them of interest.
“The S&P 500 returned 26% in 2023 and ended the year just short of the all-time high of 4796. Components of the 2023 return included +6.32% from better earnings, +17.91% from expansion in forward P/E multiple to ~20x, and +2.06% from dividends. Since 1950, the S&P 500 Index is positive the following year 80% of the time. In the presidential election years dating back to 1960, the S&P 500 index has been positive 81% of the time (13 out of 16 years). (more…)