LEI

Weekly Update

Rising Interest Rates May Now Portend Economic Growth

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Published July 7, 2023

 

There are a wide range of inputs portraying a change in investor attitudes over the past few weeks. Our friends at Delta Research offer one possibility of the change in how interest rates are viewed. We hope you find it interesting.

“The Federal Reserve raised the Fed Funds rate from 0%-0.25% to 5.00-5.25% since March of last year. The pace and amount of rate increases came as a surprise to most market strategists. The reason for the surprise is market strategists believed the economy would slow rapidly as a result of much higher interest rates. Coming into 2023, the market expectation was for one more rate hike, a pause and then rate cuts in the second half of the year. The Fed raised rates in March and May of this year and now is expected to raise again in July and then once again later in the year. (more…)

Weekly Update

Which Is Right: The Stock Market or Economic Indicators?

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Published February 3, 2023

 

Below, we augment an article by Lance Roberts considering the conundrum investors face re: a strong stock market in the face of lots of recessionary indicators.

“Despite mounting evidence supporting recession forecasts, the stock market remains at odds with that outlook. That leaves investors in a predicament of avoiding a further drawdown in stocks but also not wanting to miss out on a potential recovery. (more…)

Weekly Update

What Happens to the Market if We Have a Recession?

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Published December 30, 2022

 

Below is a high-level summary of the past year and potential decline levels for the S&P 500 if a recession comes about. Thanks to the folks at Delta for the summary information and to our friend Ravi Palaiyanur for the bottom chart.

“Two of the most robust, leading indicators of recession are the inverted yield curve and a negative six-month moving average of the Leading Economic Index (LEI). The six-month moving average of the LEI turned negative in June and the 2yr/10yr treasury inverted in July. (more…)

Weekly Update

2023 Outlook – Part 1

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Published December 9, 2022

 

The 2023 market outlooks are beginning to flow. Below is an overview of next year possibilities put together by Delta.

“Since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC, 2008-09), the stock market trended higher on low interest rates, double digit GDP growth in China, and robust non-cyclical growth from the major technology companies. What would happen if the Fed Funds rate jumped from zero to 4% in a single year? What would happen if China’s GDP growth became hobbled by non-stop Covid lockdowns? What would happen if big-cap technology stocks stopped offering consistent earnings growth and became the worst performing major segment of the U.S. stock market? (more…)

Weekly Update

Key Economic Indicators to Watch

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Published August 12, 2022

 

The article below from Zacks provides a good overview of the key economic indicators to look for as we move into the second half of the year.

“The Federal Reserve is actively trying to curb demand in the economy by raising rates, and all the talk is about whether they can usher a ‘soft-landing’ without triggering a deep recession. So, the Fed will be a key factor to watch in the second half of the year. But I also have three other economic fundamentals investors should put on their watchlists, as they could be key in determining the path of the economy and markets over the next year. (more…)

Weekly Update

A Review of Economic Indicators

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Published April 1, 2022

 

This week saw a strong move in growth stocks with breakouts in small-cap growth, software, semiconductors, real estate and other beaten-down growth and cyclical areas. This is a positive development for the broader stock market as the rally expands its reach beyond the commodity and defensive leaders of the past few months. (more…)

Weekly Update

Historical Returns Data Suggests More Gains in 2022

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Published December 17, 2021

This week we offer another outlook for 2022; this time from Delta. Reading various outlooks from different groups can, taken together, provide a view of what the ‘market’ expects. Note that our models rely on actual price data and do not include any forecasted information such as these outlooks. (more…)

Weekly Update

The Stock Market-Economy Connection

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Published March 12, 2021

Below is the most recent analysis from Schwab’s Liz Ann Sonders. While some have struggled with the seeming disconnect between the stock market and economy over the past year, Ms. Sonders outlines how the market and economy have been much more in sync than we might realize. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

Time for Caution?

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Published April 12, 2019

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Below is a recent market and economic commentary from the folks at Schwab. As with many of their comments this year, they remain quite cautious on the stock market despite its run higher. Here, they explain what they see that causes them some pause: (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

Where the Stock Market Might Be Headed Next

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Published November 17, 2017

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We thought the outlook below from Delta Investments provided a good overview of the factors supporting the stock market. Enjoy!

Our 2018 S&P 500 Index outlook is up. If the P/E remains constant as it has for the past two years, the S&P 500 should be up in-line with earnings or about 11%.

The following ten factors support our 2018 bullish investment thesis: (more…)