interest rates

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

The Market Needs Inflation


Published November 15, 2019

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We are shaped by the financial crises we experience. For those of us who lived through the sharp inflation hike of the 1970s, we are forever sensitive to inflation, looking behind every datapoint for evidence of the inflation beast lurking. Over the past decade, inflation has been remarkably steady with the inflation beast long ago tamed. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

Business Cycle/Sector Investing Takes a Curve Ball This Cycle


Published August 23, 2019

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Business cycle/sector investing is a seemingly easy way to apply a layer of insight to traditional buy-and-hold investing. By focusing our investment funds on sectors that typically show improved performance during certain phases of the business cycle, a sector investor can presume to outperform the broad market. However, it is never quite that easy. (more…)

Weekly Update

One Less Worry


Published March 22, 2019

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Below, we reprint a nice summary of the current market from Delta Investment:

When it comes to investing your money in the stock market, it may seem like there is a lot to worry about. The big worry is that you will lose your money. This big worry is nourished and amplified by a steady stream of disturbing information broadcast in headline media. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

A Market in Search of Leadership


Published December 14, 2018

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2018 was supposed to be the year that financial stocks took charge. Rising interest rates were expected to provide profitable fuel for banks to substantially increase profits. Instead, financial stocks are some of the worst performers of the year. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

No, the Stock Market Does Not Predict Recessions


Published October 26, 2018

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Below is a good post from Ben Carlson regarding the ability of the stock market to predict recessions. The data says the stock market is bad at such predictions, rising half or more of the time in a 3-6 month window ahead of the onset of a recession. So, if the stock market “looks ahead” by 6-9 months as we are often told it does, the market is no better than a coin flip in foreseeing recessions. It may not look ahead all that well is the point. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

Explanations for the Market Drop


Published October 19, 2018

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Our post last week noted that the October selloff in stocks likely had drivers other than the oft-noted rise in interest rates as some of the most interest rate-sensitive sectors, such as utilities, were holding up just fine. We also noted that the wave of geopolitical issues that seem to be ever-widening were unlikely to be a major cause of the selloff as investors were not pouring money into bonds, as they typically do during periods of angst. A recent note from Oppenheimer points to persistent and increasing weakness in non-U.S. economies as being the primary catalyst for the current stock market correction. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

Higher Interest Rates Won’t Kill the Stock Market


Published March 2, 2018

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This week we share some good information from a webcast given by Charlie Bilello of Pension Partners. The first chart shows the downward trend of the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield. Note the green arrows as the yield hits the upper portion of the channel. We are sitting right at the top of the channel. Do we want to see yields break through to the upside? (more…)