interest rates

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

All Hail the Central Banks!


Published February 7, 2020

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We were reminded again this week of the psychological power of central banks over today’s market participants. An announcement early in the week of new money(!) pushed into Chinese markets by the Chinese central bank (PBOC) made stock investors forget all about the potential global economic hurdle that is the coronavirus (with investor enthusiasm aided by a reduction in the spread of the virus). (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

Utilities(?!) Power Ahead


Published January 24, 2020

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One of the oddities of the market so far in 2020 is the decline in interest rates. After rising in the latter half of 2019, interest rates appear to have rolled over and begun heading back down over the past month. While that’s not long enough to declare a trend, the behavior of interest rate sensitive sectors tells us that this is a significant shift. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

The Market Needs Inflation


Published November 15, 2019

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We are shaped by the financial crises we experience. For those of us who lived through the sharp inflation hike of the 1970s, we are forever sensitive to inflation, looking behind every datapoint for evidence of the inflation beast lurking. Over the past decade, inflation has been remarkably steady with the inflation beast long ago tamed. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

Business Cycle/Sector Investing Takes a Curve Ball This Cycle


Published August 23, 2019

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Business cycle/sector investing is a seemingly easy way to apply a layer of insight to traditional buy-and-hold investing. By focusing our investment funds on sectors that typically show improved performance during certain phases of the business cycle, a sector investor can presume to outperform the broad market. However, it is never quite that easy. (more…)

Weekly Update

One Less Worry


Published March 22, 2019

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Below, we reprint a nice summary of the current market from Delta Investment:

When it comes to investing your money in the stock market, it may seem like there is a lot to worry about. The big worry is that you will lose your money. This big worry is nourished and amplified by a steady stream of disturbing information broadcast in headline media. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

A Market in Search of Leadership


Published December 14, 2018

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2018 was supposed to be the year that financial stocks took charge. Rising interest rates were expected to provide profitable fuel for banks to substantially increase profits. Instead, financial stocks are some of the worst performers of the year. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

No, the Stock Market Does Not Predict Recessions


Published October 26, 2018

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Below is a good post from Ben Carlson regarding the ability of the stock market to predict recessions. The data says the stock market is bad at such predictions, rising half or more of the time in a 3-6 month window ahead of the onset of a recession. So, if the stock market “looks ahead” by 6-9 months as we are often told it does, the market is no better than a coin flip in foreseeing recessions. It may not look ahead all that well is the point. (more…)