Published February 24, 2023
Below are a couple of articles about markets and the economy we thought you might find interesting. First, Delta Research talks about the benefits of higher interest rates. Second, Franklin Templeton’s ClearBridge Group discusses how housing as an economic driver has evolved from the period of the Great Financial Crisis. (more…)
Published January 6, 2023
After the dot.com market crash of 2000-2002, international stocks went on to outperform U.S. stocks until the 2008 Great Financial Crisis. That rise was driven by two factors: 1) the “buildout” of China which pushed any and all commodity-related stocks (e.g. industrials, materials thus emerging markets) higher, and 2) the decline in the dot.com darlings which had become outrageously priced.
It usually happens that the leader of the market in one cycle becomes the laggard in the next as the excess is worked off. So it was post-2002 as the chart below shows with the black line highlighting the period where international stocks outperformed. (more…)
Published December 9, 2022
The 2023 market outlooks are beginning to flow. Below is an overview of next year possibilities put together by Delta.
“Since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC, 2008-09), the stock market trended higher on low interest rates, double digit GDP growth in China, and robust non-cyclical growth from the major technology companies. What would happen if the Fed Funds rate jumped from zero to 4% in a single year? What would happen if China’s GDP growth became hobbled by non-stop Covid lockdowns? What would happen if big-cap technology stocks stopped offering consistent earnings growth and became the worst performing major segment of the U.S. stock market? (more…)