Published June 5, 2026
As investors, we scour the news for clues how our investments might be affected by changes in the economy, geopolitics, et al. What we cannot see are the flows of money around the global markets. All we can see are the resultant prices of stocks, bonds and commodities as money flows in and out. Those price movements are what drive our models and, thus, our investment decisions in the short-to-medium term (where our models operate). (more…)
Published June 20, 2025
This week we offer a summary of recent market and economic activities from Blaine Rollins and Hamilton Lane:
“The bounce in US equities and high yield credit spreads is a sign that the big White House tariff rates will not hold through year end. Stock and corporate bond investors are betting that margins will be safe, and that earnings will not be damaged. The government might bark about tariffs, but they will not bite because Americans want their goods available and affordable, and no one wants to see US multinational operations shift their exported sales manufacturing overseas. The weak Treasury bond market tells us that higher inflation will stick around as some tariffs remain in place. And the US dollar weakness suggests that owners of businesses and investors are now more concerned about deploying capital into US capex and investment assets. (more…)