GDP

Weekly Update

With Interest Rates Rising, Debt Becomes a Concern

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Published October 20,  2023

 

This recent article from Schwab examines the impact of debts, government and corporate, may be having on the market.

“One of our expectations highlighted in our 2023 outlook report, published in late 2022, was that the subject of the U.S. budget deficit and federal debt would increasingly become a part of the “conversation.” That has certainly been the case—heightened recently, courtesy of the runup in longer-term Treasury yields. In today’s report, we’ll focus on the government and corporate sectors, with a focus on consumers to come in later reports. (more…)

Weekly Update

A Better Economic Forecast

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Published August 11, 2023

Following up on last week’s article about why recession calls have been so wrong in 2023, we offer a look at what might be a better source of high-level economic forecasting. Our friends at Delta recently wrote about the success of the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank’s “GDPNow” model. That analysis is below. Following the Delta review, we provide a link to the Atlanta Fed’s model, which is routinely updated, for those of you who have an interest in learning more about it. (more…)

Weekly Update

The Market Bottoms Well Before the Economy Does

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Published October 21, 2022

 

These days, there is much talk about a coming recession. By the time the recession gets here, if it does, the stock market will have already suffered much of its decline and will be near its low point. The article below from an analyst at JP Morgan presents a historical perspective of the timing between recessions and stock market bottoms. (more…)

Weekly Update

Not a “Real” Recession

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Published July 8, 2022

At some point, all the bad news gets priced into stocks. We will see if that has happened in the coming weeks when companies report their quarterly earnings. The bearish market case says that falling corporate earnings are the next shoe to drop. The bullish case points to a myriad of seasonal factors, such as mid-term election market history, to suggest that the worst is behind us in stocks. (more…)

Weekly Update

Stock Market Performance During Rising Rates

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Published February 18, 2022

 

Stocks remain fully in the midst of a correction, searching for a bottom that may not come until after the Federal Reserve takes action in March. In the meantime, our friends at Delta back up and survey the broader picture to comment on market behavior during various interest rate/economic growth scenarios. (more…)

Weekly Update

What the Bulls See

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Published July 2, 2021

Last week we brought you a global outlook from Schwab. This week, we bring a mid-year outlook published by Invesco, the company responsible for the Nasdaq 100 ETF (symbol: QQQ) that our models focus on. Needless to say, Invesco is very positive on the outlook. (more…)

Weekly Update

April Often Shines on the Q

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Published April 2, 2021

This week’s market action reminds us that April is often a favorable month for investors, particularly for tech/consumer stocks. This week, those stocks look to have begun a rebound from their March rest period. Over the past 15 years, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has posted a gain 80% of the time in April, making it the second most reliably strong month for this index. (more…)

Weekly Update

The Stock Market-Economy Connection

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Published March 12, 2021

Below is the most recent analysis from Schwab’s Liz Ann Sonders. While some have struggled with the seeming disconnect between the stock market and economy over the past year, Ms. Sonders outlines how the market and economy have been much more in sync than we might realize. (more…)

Uncategorized, Weekly Update

An overview of economic and market pros and cons

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Published June 7, 2018

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The summer heat has arrived in force here in Austin over the past couple of weeks.  Our focus Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) index has also been hot, emerging from a three-month market correction to break out to new highs recently.  The commentary below from the team at Charles Schwab does a good job of outlining some of the major positives and negatives the market wrestles with these days.  We hope you find it informative.
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