Published October 21, 2022
These days, there is much talk about a coming recession. By the time the recession gets here, if it does, the stock market will have already suffered much of its decline and will be near its low point. The article below from an analyst at JP Morgan presents a historical perspective of the timing between recessions and stock market bottoms. (more…)
Published July 8, 2022
At some point, all the bad news gets priced into stocks. We will see if that has happened in the coming weeks when companies report their quarterly earnings. The bearish market case says that falling corporate earnings are the next shoe to drop. The bullish case points to a myriad of seasonal factors, such as mid-term election market history, to suggest that the worst is behind us in stocks. (more…)
Published February 18, 2022
Stocks remain fully in the midst of a correction, searching for a bottom that may not come until after the Federal Reserve takes action in March. In the meantime, our friends at Delta back up and survey the broader picture to comment on market behavior during various interest rate/economic growth scenarios. (more…)
Published December 10, 2021
Continuing from last week’s outlook for 2022, we provide the second part below, this part focused on the economy and stock valuations. (more…)
Published July 2, 2021
Last week we brought you a global outlook from Schwab. This week, we bring a mid-year outlook published by Invesco, the company responsible for the Nasdaq 100 ETF (symbol: QQQ) that our models focus on. Needless to say, Invesco is very positive on the outlook. (more…)
Published April 2, 2021
This week’s market action reminds us that April is often a favorable month for investors, particularly for tech/consumer stocks. This week, those stocks look to have begun a rebound from their March rest period. Over the past 15 years, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has posted a gain 80% of the time in April, making it the second most reliably strong month for this index. (more…)
Published March 12, 2021
Below is the most recent analysis from Schwab’s Liz Ann Sonders. While some have struggled with the seeming disconnect between the stock market and economy over the past year, Ms. Sonders outlines how the market and economy have been much more in sync than we might realize. (more…)
Published June 7, 2018
The summer heat has arrived in force here in Austin over the past couple of weeks. Our focus Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) index has also been hot, emerging from a three-month market correction to break out to new highs recently. The commentary below from the team at Charles Schwab does a good job of outlining some of the major positives and negatives the market wrestles with these days. We hope you find it informative.
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Published November 17, 2017
We thought the outlook below from Delta Investments provided a good overview of the factors supporting the stock market. Enjoy!
Our 2018 S&P 500 Index outlook is up. If the P/E remains constant as it has for the past two years, the S&P 500 should be up in-line with earnings or about 11%.
The following ten factors support our 2018 bullish investment thesis: (more…)