Published January 24, 2025
Whereas December showed investors becoming fearful of a sharp rise in interest rates, January seems to be bringing a more optimistic read on those rising rates, namely that economic growth will re-accelerate. When Trump’s first day in office did not bring substantial across the board tariffs, stock investors took it to mean that the bulls could run. Earnings have come in very good so far further emboldening the bulls. (more…)
Published August 23, 2024
The market is eagerly awaiting the commencement of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts next month. The sharp, nonstop rebound from the August selloff provides ample evidence of investor enthusiasm for the upcoming cuts. Market interest rates have fallen back to where they were 18 months ago. The chart below shows how the yield curve has changed over the past year. The left side of the curve displays very short-term rates (1 month to 1 year) which are driven by the Fed. They have been anchored to the Fed’s 5.25% short-term target rate while the longer-term rates have fallen notably.
Published April 19, 2024
Markets have fixated on interest rates and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy for the past few years. Rate hikes led to the stock market’s swoon in 2022. The end of those hikes brought a new rally in 2023 that carried into the first quarter of this year. Below is a great overview from the Wall Street Journal on how economists’ views of interest rates and the economy have evolved and where they currently stand. Investors remain obsessed by the timing of the initial Fed rate cut. (more…)
Published May 6, 2022
This week the Fed made the first of their larger interest rate hikes with a 0.5% move (50 bps in bond market parlance). Here’s the path of Fed interest rates that the market foresees – straight up from now through March 2023. (more…)
Published March 18, 2022
The question below, “Could we be near a market bottom?”, posed in the most recent letter from Blaine Rollins, coincided with what appeared to be a complete washout in European and Chinese, stocks. Whereas the emergence of the Omicron strain of coronavirus may have kickstarted the negative market proceedings back in November, the more recent events have mostly been happening outside the U.S. with the war in Ukraine and China’s covid crackdown adding further fuel to the downtrend. (more…)
Published February 18, 2022
Stocks remain fully in the midst of a correction, searching for a bottom that may not come until after the Federal Reserve takes action in March. In the meantime, our friends at Delta back up and survey the broader picture to comment on market behavior during various interest rate/economic growth scenarios. (more…)
Published November 19, 2021
Here at TimingCube we are focused on the Nasdaq 100 index, trading with the symbol QQQ. This index typically contains the most innovative and “high tech” companies in the stock market with a strong bent toward technology and consumer services. Schwab recently posted an article outlining the pros and cons of the broad tech sector, which has a very high correlation to the QQQ. We thought you might find it interesting. (more…)
Published January 15, 2021
After a sharp two year decline in interest rates which saw the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield plunge from 3.0% all the way down to 0.5%, rates have broken back above 1.0% and appear headed well higher. (more…)