Published August 16, 2024
It was only one week ago that markets came unglued as fears of a “hard landing” coupled with a Japanese Yen market shocker to unnerve investors. But that was last week. Here is Delta Research’s take on the recent market and economic action:
“The market is resilient. (more…)
Published April 5, 2024
Below, we get Schwab’s take on recent inflation readings the potential for Fed interest rate cuts. The market continues to be obsessed with the timing of these future cuts. That obsession shows particular day-to-day market impact when we are in-between corporate earnings reports, as was the case this week. (more…)
Published September 15, 2023
With our focus on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), we do not actively invest in bonds in our models. However, we know that many of our subscribers do. Below we offer the latest output from Delta Research. We hope you find it of interest.
“The iShares Core US Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) representing investment grade, U.S. corporate debt was down -1.77% in 2021 and -13.02% in 2022. 2022 was by far its worst performance year ever. Never before has the AGG suffered from two sequential down years. The rolling 5, 3 and 1-year average annual returns of the AGG are 0.39%, -4.69% and -0.36%, respectively. An investor might expect bonds to bounce back after such negative performance. The index is up only 0.9% year-to-date, a significant disappointment. (more…)
Published March 10, 2023
Though interest rates get all the headlines, changes in the supply of money can have substantial impacts on the economy and asset prices. Below is Delta’s analysis of changes in the supply of money and how that might impact inflation.
“The January money supply declined by 1.7% versus a year ago. Money supply (M2) is a measure of money including coins, currency, check and savings deposits, travelers checks and money market deposit accounts. This is both the biggest yearly decline and the first time ever it has contracted in consecutive months. The monthly rate of change has been falling consistently since mid-2021 when it peaked at a 27% growth rate. (more…)
Published March 11, 2022
The market mess enters its fourth month with Chinese stocks now getting hit (down -15% in the first 10 days of this month). Credit spreads, a proxy for risk concern in the bond market, have risen sharply as the chart below shows. So plenty of reasons for hand-wringing, all of which builds to a buy point for stocks, eventually. (more…)
Published November 12, 2021
This week’s inflation numbers put a little (temporary?) scare in the markets. But the one-day jump in interest rates did not even offset the past two weeks’ worth of yield declines. (more…)