Published July 4, 2025
After a tumultuous but ultimately rewarding first half of 2025, we look ahead to the second half of the year to see what might unfold. (more…)
Bull Market
Will 2025 Bring a Recession?
Published November 8, 2024
A two-year long bull market environment has pushed stock market valuations to the upper end of the typical range. Leuthold Group’s Doug Ramsey posted the following note highlighting what concerns him with stock at this level: (more…)
A New Bull Market?
Published June 9, 2023
The S&P 500 entered a new “bull market” this week as the index has now risen more than 20% from its low point hit last fall. Our friends at Delta research outline below how market sentiment has changed:
“The market is shifting. Sentiment is turning bullish. On the prospects of better growth and lower recession risk, funds are flowing back into equities.
(more…)
Searching for the Market’s Low Point
Published November 25, 2022
The stock market began its decline one year ago. We posted the first chart below around that time to point out the danger ahead from the failed break higher in smallcap stocks.
Since that failed breakout, we have seen an absolute assault on markets by the Federal Reserve with interest rates being raised at an almost unprecedented pace. The short-term 2-year interest rate has jumped from near zero to 4.50% in twelve months (second chart). (more…)
Bulls Find Some Traction
Published July 29, 2022
In a bull market, investors buy the rumor and sell the news, with the selling being typically light. In a bear market like we are in now, this week showed us it is the opposite. Investors fear the news, sell stocks down on the fear, buying them back when the news, though bad, is not quite as terrible as it could be. So it was with the Federal Reserve announcement this week. (more…)
On Midterm Election Years in the Stock Market
Published April 29, 2022
We really enjoyed Ryan Detrick’s article on the typical stock market movements during midterm election years (aka the second year of a presidential cycle). We hope you will find it interesting. (more…)
Seasonally Weak September Challenges the Bulls
Published September 24, 2021
Monday’s gap down to begin the week was notable for the current stock market rally. It was the first time in almost a year that the S&P 500 broke the intermediate term trendline (in blue on the chart below). It has been an exceptionally long period of calm. (more…)
Buy and Hold Investing
Passive investing involves buying index ETFs or funds of varying asset classes in some predetermined target mix, such as 60% of a portfolio invested in stocks and 40% in bonds. The investor focuses on buying this portfolio at the lowest possible costs, holding the ETFs/funds indefinitely while occasionally making minor adjustments to keep the portfolio near its target mix. The challenge in following a passive investment approach is setting aside our emotional response to a market under severe pressure. Seeing your account balance dropping 20% is difficult for most of us to stomach. We believe investors do not have to suffer through those gut-wrenching declines. (more…)
The Nasdaq Rolls Over
Published March 5, 2021
The market’s preferred narrative has changed over the past month leading to a selloff in the tech & consumer-heavy Nasdaq. When the current market rally started way back in April 2020, the argument was that the stable earnings growth and global presence of the mega-cap tech and consumer stocks like Amazon, Facebook, Nike, et al. would be the best place for stock investors to park their money. These brands are substantially online or ‘digital’ in their business operations, and less likely to be impacted by the new stay-at-home lifestyle. (more…)
Have We Just Witnessed the Start of a New Multi-Year Bull Market?
Published November 20, 2020
The stock market has blasted upward in a very bullish sign for investors. Last week we talked about how value sectors were finding buyers. This week, we offer even more evidence of the new bullishness in the stock market. Driving this bullish attitude is the announcement of coronavirus vaccines. Those announcements have led investors to expect a return to some economic normalcy in the first half of 2021. (more…)
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