Published August 21, 2026
Investors have been stuck in recent days fretting over interest rates while the tech rally hits a wall. The note below from Marketwatch highlights what might unstick tech stocks and the broader market.
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bond market
Are All Systems Now “Go!”?
Published June 27,2025
The stock market approached new highs this week. Where have all the bears gone? Delta Research offers the crosscurrents below that continue to generate the Wall of Worry that stocks are climbing.
“The stock market surged this week despite U.S.-Iran military tensions. It rallied when bombings began, climbed further on ceasefire news, and even gained after reports suggested limited damage to Iran’s nuclear capabilities. The S&P 500 rose over 2%, now within 1% of its all-time high. If you predicted this response, you’re operating at an elite level. (more…)
What’s Going On With Interest Rates?
Published March 7, 2025
For much of the past four years investors have focused on inflation and the Federal Reserve’s fight against it. While the Fed only controls the very short-term interest rate, their words about potential future Fed moves affect interest rates much further out in time.
In December, the Fed surprised investors by pulling back on expectations for coming interest rate cuts. Inflation has stabilized albeit at levels that might be higher than the Fed would like. But over the past two weeks, interest rates have suddenly fallen sharply, appearing to diverge from the Fed-driven path. (more…)
2025 Outlook – Part 1
Published December 20, 2024
As we approach year-end, the major banks and investment houses are publishing their outlooks for the coming year. Below is Schwab’s 2025 outlook. We routinely pass along commentary from Schwab. We have no opinion on their output other than recognizing its outsized influence on the broader investment public. Our models have no link to any information from a broker. We use price, volume, and related market data as our only inputs. Here’s what Schwab sees: (more…)
A wild week for markets
Published August 9, 2024
It’s been quite a week for markets. Addressing various topics around the market stress, we offer thoughts from Blake Millard. Here’s Blake commenting on Monday’s market selloff where futures were down as much as -5% before cutting that loss by day’s end. (more…)
Measures of Investor Risk
Published May 24, 2024
One of Wall Street’s last remaining bears threw in the towel this week when Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson raised his outlook for the stock market. This came after Mr. Wilson warned for over a year that the market was vulnerable and the economy shaky. The data has been anything but concerning so far in 2024 with consumer spending remaining strong and investors ever-more confident. Stocks have delivered an average year’s worth of gains in less than six months. (more…)
Who Backstops Cryptocurrencies?
Published November 11, 2022
For the first time in awhile the usual market suspects of inflation and the Fed’s assault on the stock and bond markets took a backseat for a couple of days. When interest rates rise sharply as they have this year, investors find out who was overly leveraged and caught without a seat in the market’s cakewalk. This week, we found out that cryptocurrency exchange FTX was the latest one without a seat. (more…)
Bulls Find Some Traction
Published July 29, 2022
In a bull market, investors buy the rumor and sell the news, with the selling being typically light. In a bear market like we are in now, this week showed us it is the opposite. Investors fear the news, sell stocks down on the fear, buying them back when the news, though bad, is not quite as terrible as it could be. So it was with the Federal Reserve announcement this week. (more…)
Market Offering Almost Nowhere to Hide
Published May 6, 2022
This week the Fed made the first of their larger interest rate hikes with a 0.5% move (50 bps in bond market parlance). Here’s the path of Fed interest rates that the market foresees – straight up from now through March 2023. (more…)
Stock Investors Look Increasingly Confident
Published November 5, 2021
A pivotal week for stocks in the near-term as the Federal Reserve (finally!) confirms its plan to begin reducing (aka “tapering”) its portfolio of bonds. This gradual stepping back from active participation in the bond markets is viewed as a first step in the central bank’s path to raising interest rates. (more…)
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