bond market

Weekly Update

Are All Systems Now “Go!”?

By

Published June 27,2025

 

The stock market approached new highs this week. Where have all the bears gone? Delta Research offers the crosscurrents below that continue to generate the Wall of Worry that stocks are climbing.

“The stock market surged this week despite U.S.-Iran military tensions. It rallied when bombings began, climbed further on ceasefire news, and even gained after reports suggested limited damage to Iran’s nuclear capabilities. The S&P 500 rose over 2%, now within 1% of its all-time high. If you predicted this response, you’re operating at an elite level. (more…)

Weekly Update

What’s Going On With Interest Rates?

By

Published March 7, 2025

For much of the past four years investors have focused on inflation and the Federal Reserve’s fight against it. While the Fed only controls the very short-term interest rate, their words about potential future Fed moves affect interest rates much further out in time.

In December, the Fed surprised investors by pulling back on expectations for coming interest rate cuts. Inflation has stabilized albeit at levels that might be higher than the Fed would like. But over the past two weeks, interest rates have suddenly fallen sharply, appearing to diverge from the Fed-driven path. (more…)

Weekly Update

2025 Outlook – Part 1

By

Published December 20, 2024

 

As we approach year-end, the major banks and investment houses are publishing their outlooks for the coming year. Below is Schwab’s 2025 outlook. We routinely pass along commentary from Schwab. We have no opinion on their output other than recognizing its outsized influence on the broader investment public. Our models have no link to any information from a broker. We use price, volume, and related market data as our only inputs. Here’s what Schwab sees: (more…)

Weekly Update

A wild week for markets

By

Published August 9, 2024

 

It’s been quite a week for markets. Addressing various topics around the market stress, we offer thoughts from Blake Millard. Here’s Blake commenting on Monday’s market selloff where futures were down as much as -5% before cutting that loss by day’s end. (more…)

Weekly Update

Measures of Investor Risk

By

Published May 24, 2024

 

One of Wall Street’s last remaining bears threw in the towel this week when Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson raised his outlook for the stock market. This came after Mr. Wilson warned for over a year that the market was vulnerable and the economy shaky. The data has been anything but concerning so far in 2024 with consumer spending remaining strong and investors ever-more confident. Stocks have delivered an average year’s worth of gains in less than six months. (more…)

Weekly Update

Who Backstops Cryptocurrencies?

By

Published November 11, 2022

 

For the first time in awhile the usual market suspects of inflation and the Fed’s assault on the stock and bond markets took a backseat for a couple of days. When interest rates rise sharply as they have this year, investors find out who was overly leveraged and caught without a seat in the market’s cakewalk. This week, we found out that cryptocurrency exchange FTX was the latest one without a seat. (more…)

Weekly Update

Bulls Find Some Traction

By

Published July 29, 2022

 

In a bull market, investors buy the rumor and sell the news, with the selling being typically light. In a bear market like we are in now, this week showed us it is the opposite. Investors fear the news, sell stocks down on the fear, buying them back when the news, though bad, is not quite as terrible as it could be. So it was with the Federal Reserve announcement this week. (more…)

Weekly Update

Market Offering Almost Nowhere to Hide

By

Published May 6, 2022

 

This week the Fed made the first of their larger interest rate hikes with a 0.5% move (50 bps in bond market parlance). Here’s the path of Fed interest rates that the market foresees – straight up from now through March 2023. (more…)

Weekly Update

Stock Investors Look Increasingly Confident

By

Published November 5, 2021

 

A pivotal week for stocks in the near-term as the Federal Reserve (finally!) confirms its plan to begin reducing (aka “tapering”) its portfolio of bonds. This gradual stepping back from active participation in the bond markets is viewed as a first step in the central bank’s path to raising interest rates. (more…)

Weekly Update

What the Bulls See

By

Published July 2, 2021

Last week we brought you a global outlook from Schwab. This week, we bring a mid-year outlook published by Invesco, the company responsible for the Nasdaq 100 ETF (symbol: QQQ) that our models focus on. Needless to say, Invesco is very positive on the outlook. (more…)