Published February 14, 2025
Through the first month of the new Trump Administration, the most market-impactful news has been the back-and-forth on tariffs. Below, Blaine Rollins observes the impact of tariffs on the markets. We hope you find it informative. (more…)
Published February 7, 2025
Below are some comments from Delta Research on the dynamics behind market moves. As the stock market churns, it’s interesting to read what goes on under the surface of the index headlines.
“On Monday January 27, Nvidia depreciated -17% ($589 billion) in response to the announcement from China regarding the price/performance characteristics of their DeepSeek R1 AI engine. (more…)
Published January 31, 2025
More than any other month of the year, January’s performance is closely tracked by market watchers as a sign of things to come. Below, Blake Millard provides the data behind the notion that January’s performance tells the tale for the remainder of 2025.
“Friday marks the end of January and the seasonal trend known as the January Barometer. The January Barometer is the belief that investment performance of the S&P 500 index in January can predict its performance for the rest of the year. (more…)
Published January 24, 2025
Whereas December showed investors becoming fearful of a sharp rise in interest rates, January seems to be bringing a more optimistic read on those rising rates, namely that economic growth will re-accelerate. When Trump’s first day in office did not bring substantial across the board tariffs, stock investors took it to mean that the bulls could run. Earnings have come in very good so far further emboldening the bulls. (more…)
Published January 17, 2025
While markets have been cautious over the past few weeks, our friends at Delta Research summarize how the tide might be turning. Here is what they see:
“Since reaching a low of about 3.6% in September, the 10-year treasury rate ran up to 4.8% this week. As the rate went higher, high stock valuations and economic growth assumptions were increasingly at risk. (more…)
Published January 10, 2025
Happy New Year! Markets have begun the year where they exited 2024, with quite a bit of uncertainty. Blake Millard does a good job laying out the sources of that uncertainty in his comments shown below:
“Policy uncertainty should lead to higher volatility
The U.S. economy remains on solid footing as we head into 2025, supported by a steady consumer, easing inflation, relief from higher/restrictive interest rates, and a pickup in the corporate earnings cycle.
With trend GDP growth expected, the fundamental underpinnings that support economic expansion are robust and well known. However, a number of wild cards patiently await in the shadows that could determine the trajectory of the economy and financial markets over the next year. (more…)
Published January 3, 2025
Below we provide another couple of 2025 outlooks. First from Jim Paulsen of The Leuthold Group. That is followed by investment house Apollo’s assessment of risks and opportunities. There is a heightened level of uncertainty, which markets have been responding to in recent weeks as the first commentary notes. Nonetheless, the strength of the Mag 7 has greatly overshadowed the market’s underlying weakness in recent weeks, leaving indexes largely near record highs and posting a strong 2024. (more…)
Published December 27, 2024
Last week we offered Schwab’s 2025 outlook. This week we pursue a bit of a different input. The outlook below is an excerpt from JP Morgan’s Private Banking unit. This type of outlook is more focused on broad economic and industry trends. We hope you find it interesting. (more…)
Published December 20, 2024
As we approach year-end, the major banks and investment houses are publishing their outlooks for the coming year. Below is Schwab’s 2025 outlook. We routinely pass along commentary from Schwab. We have no opinion on their output other than recognizing its outsized influence on the broader investment public. Our models have no link to any information from a broker. We use price, volume, and related market data as our only inputs. Here’s what Schwab sees: (more…)
Published December 13, 2024
After a euphoric leap in the stock market once the election results came in, stocks have presented a somewhat confused pattern. The day after the election, small cap stocks ripped higher by +6%, a massive one-day leap. The beginning of a long-awaited catch-up trade for small cap stocks? Not so fast. (more…)