Author: fdacic

Weekly Update

Is Globalization Dead?

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Published December 16, 2022

 

We found this opinion piece from Merryn Somerset Webb to be interesting as we turn our attention to 2023 projections. Ms. Webb writes for the Financial Times, among many other publications. Her commentary below obviously refers much to her home country of the UK. But many, if not most, of her observations apply globally. Of course, our models are agnostic to economic trends such as those discussed here. Instead, we focus only on the price and volume trends in the market – up or down – and attempt to react accordingly. (more…)

Weekly Update

2023 Outlook – Part 1

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Published December 9, 2022

 

The 2023 market outlooks are beginning to flow. Below is an overview of next year possibilities put together by Delta.

“Since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC, 2008-09), the stock market trended higher on low interest rates, double digit GDP growth in China, and robust non-cyclical growth from the major technology companies. What would happen if the Fed Funds rate jumped from zero to 4% in a single year? What would happen if China’s GDP growth became hobbled by non-stop Covid lockdowns? What would happen if big-cap technology stocks stopped offering consistent earnings growth and became the worst performing major segment of the U.S. stock market? (more…)

Weekly Update

Investors Love Powell’s Softer Tone

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Published December 2, 2022

Investors increasingly believe the Federal Reserve has seen peak inflation and, recession or no, will very soon pause their interest rate hikes. Stock markets are responding as if the market has bottomed; with the question now how slow 2023 global economies will be. While employment layoffs are regularly in the news, labor markets remain strong with metrics of consumer activity holding at high levels. At worst, the economic data has become mixed, compelling investors to shift away from the hand-wringing that characterized the late Summer/early Fall. China appears to have pulled back on the most restrictive Covid measures. Supply chain issues have all but disappeared. The FTX crypto implosion looks to be limited to the landscape of crypto companies and investors, not spreading outward to threaten any systemic trouble. Investors now seem to look forward to a 2023 without the storm clouds they once feared. (more…)

Weekly Update

Searching for the Market’s Low Point

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Published November 25, 2022

 

The stock market began its decline one year ago. We posted the first chart below around that time to point out the danger ahead from the failed break higher in smallcap stocks.

Since that failed breakout, we have seen an absolute assault on markets by the Federal Reserve with interest rates being raised at an almost unprecedented pace. The short-term 2-year interest rate has jumped from near zero to 4.50% in twelve months (second chart). (more…)

Weekly Update

What Will Get the Bulls Really Running

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Published November 18, 2022

 

The folks at Delta have provided a good succinct overview of the state of the stock market and what needs to happen for a sustainable uptrend to occur. Here’s what they have to say:

“Since mid-October, the Bull has shown some life. The S&P 500 is up by about 5% from the closing low on October 12. Bullish drivers of the market include:

  • An expectation for typical seasonal strength in November and December
  • A perfect history of 18 – 0 of positive S&P 500 performance from November through April in mid-term elections years dating back to 1950
  • Mid-term elections that deliver a divided U.S. Congress which is expected to reduce the likelihood of any new taxes and major fiscal expenditures
  • Earnings reports are not as bad as feared
  • Maybe the Fed will stop raising rates sooner rather than later

(more…)

Weekly Update

Who Backstops Cryptocurrencies?

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Published November 11, 2022

 

For the first time in awhile the usual market suspects of inflation and the Fed’s assault on the stock and bond markets took a backseat for a couple of days. When interest rates rise sharply as they have this year, investors find out who was overly leveraged and caught without a seat in the market’s cakewalk. This week, we found out that cryptocurrency exchange FTX was the latest one without a seat. (more…)

Weekly Update

Inflation Has Plateaued

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Published November 4, 2022

 

Stock investors had a bit of a panic attack this week. The Fed Chair Jerome Powell continued hammering markets with his inflation-fighting warrior pose, a pose that most all market-watchers now agree he was late in adopting. Powell is making up for lost time, of course, by ratcheting up interest rates at a breakneck pace. The sudden acceleration has been a very cold shower for some business processes with private equity and venture capital investors reducing their activity by a third or more in the most recent quarter. (more…)

Weekly Update

The Housing Market Stumbles

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Published October 28, 2022

Below we share a good summary of the housing market. As with the stock market, the woes experienced recently are really only reversing the crazy gains of the prior year. Compared to pre-pandemic, we would guess that most homeowners remain in very good shape and sitting on better-than-average appreciation (aka: inflation) in their assets. (more…)

Weekly Update

The Market Bottoms Well Before the Economy Does

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Published October 21, 2022

 

These days, there is much talk about a coming recession. By the time the recession gets here, if it does, the stock market will have already suffered much of its decline and will be near its low point. The article below from an analyst at JP Morgan presents a historical perspective of the timing between recessions and stock market bottoms. (more…)

Weekly Update

Corporate Earnings Are the Next Shoe to Drop

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Published October 14, 2022

 

Investors await corporate earnings data over the next few weeks with concerns high that declining earnings outlooks will be the next shoe to drop on stocks. The chart below highlights where we have been on corporate earnings and how things have changed. (more…)