Author: fdacic

Weekly Update

Biotech About to Turn It Around?


Published March 10, 2017

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In 2015, after more than quadrupling in price in a massive bullish run, biotech stocks hit a wall. Presumably undone by some comments from then-Senator Hillary Clinton that drug prices were too high and needed to be addressed, biotech stocks began wilting. Mrs. Clinton’s comments aside, the stocks had run to a point where they were just way overvalued and due for a rest. (more…)

Weekly Update

The Challenge of Building Investment Models


Published March 3, 2017

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Over the 15+ years we have been publishing our investment models much has changed. Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) were in their infancy when we started back in 2001 with only a handful of major choices, all focused on major indexes like the S&P 500. The notion of shorting markets had been around a long time. But primarily among professionals and avid traders. Ever-rising computation power and internet speeds made crunching data quicker, easier, and cheaper putting into every hobbyist traders hands the power to build investment models. (more…)

Weekly Update

A Matter of Time


Published February 24, 2017

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Gold, silver, and commodities generally have been trending higher for the past three months. Rather than ponder the reasons why, we are going to focus on whether buying gold is a good choice right now from a technical perspective. We will look at the gold trade from a couple of different time frame perspectives. (more…)

Weekly Update

Why worry?


Published February 17, 2017

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After two months spent churning around while the Nasdaq index caught up, stocks have powered upward so far this month. With this second leg of the post-election rally kicked off, investors have a substantial fear of missing out (FOMO as the social media set would call it). This self-reinforcing ebullience has pushed volatility to extremely low levels. As Chart 1 below from Charlie Bilello shows, the S&P 500 has set a record for the number of days without even a +/-1% move, a record that now stands at some 44 days, a full 10 days or almost 30% longer than the prior record. (more…)

Weekly Update

The BRIC is back?


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Published February 10, 2017

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Throughout the 2000s the BRIC countries – Brazil, Russia, India, China – were stock market leaders riding a boom in commodities driven by China’s expansion. Since that boom peaked in 2008, the group has been out of favor – flat at best, sliding in the case of Russia and Brazil, the two most sensitive to commodity prices. Recently, the BRIC looks like it just might be back as commodity prices get a lift. Most commodities are half or less their peak prices.
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Weekly Update

The Importance of Avoiding Large Stock Market Losses


Published February 3, 2017

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During the financial crisis the stock market fell by over -50%. By February 1, 2011, the stock market had recovered about +80% from the market lows. Yet, investors still had not recovered from the losses. In fact, they were still down by more than -15%! Many investors might have wondered: why am I still “underwater”? How can an 80% gain be less than a 50% loss? Chart 1 below sets out the math of this situation.

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Weekly Update

How a market rally begins and keeps going


Published January 27, 2017

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A stock market rally is rarely about any single thing. While one event, news item, or good market day can certainly change the tone of the market, it takes a full menu of inputs turning positive to sustain and build a lasting rally. Such as been the case over the past three months. This overview of the past three months provides a good general display of how a stock market rally gets going and stays going. Whether this rally marks more time and higher prices for beyond three months is anybody’s guess. (more…)

Weekly Update

TimingCube gets a new look!


Published January 20, 2017

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TimingCube gets a new look!

Since we launched our award-winning investment website in July 2001 many investors have taken great advantage of our trend timing approach to the stock market to build their wealth. Over those fifteen years markets as well as technology has changed dramatically. Our efforts to keep up with changes in the markets have produced new models, new websites, and new portfolios to give investors a wider palette of choices to guide their investment journey. For our 15th birthday, we decided it was time to embark on embracing the new technology available to us. We launched a complete redesign of our original TimingCube website. Today, we announce that we are ready to release this new site to you, our loyal subscribers! (more…)

Weekly Update

A look at closed-end funds


Published January 13, 2017

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An area of the investment universe that receives little attention these days is the closed-end fund. These funds seem to have fallen somewhat out of favor among individual “retail” investors as exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have exploded in popularity over the past decade. They are a niche investment product to be sure, but one that can offer unique and sometimes compelling opportunities. (more…)

Weekly Update

Investing is overwhelming


Published January 6, 2017

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Looking at the Wall Street Journal’s chart below of the 2016 performance of myriad asset classes and indexes, we were struck by just how overwhelming the investment landscape can be. The list below does not even include all the indexes and subsectors available to investors. Nor does it begin to contemplate individual company stocks, options or futures on any of these securities, or bonds. From the thousands upon thousands of choices, we have made our focus the Nasdaq 100 index traded by the ticker symbol QQQ. Trading QQQ is our default. (more…)