Author: fdacic

Weekly Update

Earnings turn up


Published December 9, 2016
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 We have written a few times how the tremendous decline in energy earnings was pretty much the sole reason for the quarters-long negative streak in earnings for the S&P 500. Liz Ann Sonders from Charles Schwab wrote this week about the improving outlook for earnings and how that improvement has underpinned the recent stock rally. Here is what Mrs. Sonders had to say: (more…)

Weekly Update

Get it together Nasdaq!


Published December 2, 2016

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 Stocks have surged after the election with investors enthused about a coming raft of tax cuts and increased government investment. The epicenter of this move has been domestic-focused stocks, particularly those of smaller companies. Companies with a more global footprint have been a mixed bag as concerns about a possibly more protectionist trade approach perhaps offsets the goodness of increased government cash infusions. To that end, our focus Nasdaq 100 index (QQQ) has substantially lagged the upward action. This lagging behavior might well portend coming troubles in the broader market as the post-election enthusiasm wears off. (more…)

Weekly Update

Post-election market rips higher


Published November 25, 2016

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Many investors are astounded by the nearly vertical move higher in stocks since the election. Below are a couple of commentaries from high-profile money managers that shine a light on what is behind the sharp move higher in stocks. As we’ve pointed out the past couple of weeks, the move upward in stocks has been dominated by certain sectors – e.g. finance, industrial – while other sectors have suffered – e.g. anything income-oriented + bonds. (more…)

Weekly Update

Value stocks coming on strong


Published November 18, 2016

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Continuing on from last week in describing the major shift in the markets post-election, we reprint below John Murphy’s article discussing some of those shifts. (more…)

Weekly Update

Emotional markets


Published November 11, 2016timingcube_cartoon11112016

Followers of markets this week got a heavy and concentrated dose of the unbridled emotion that can affect markets. Stocks jumped higher Monday and Tuesday as it appeared a Hillary Clinton victory was likely (after nine consecutive days of losses begun when FBI Director Comey announced a new email investigation). Mrs. Clinton has been the Wall Street favorite for some time as she is more of a known quantity to markets; whereas Mr. Trump’s stance toward markets is unclear and occasionally has come across as anti-trade, a concern in some companies and sectors. (more…)

Weekly Update

Market under pressure


Published November 4, 2016

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Last week’s market summary noted that stock investors were looking for earnings to light a fire under the bulls and deliver stocks to new high ground, a spot the Nasdaq Composite index had visited for one day early in that week. Since that new high for the Nasdaq, it’s been nothing but badness for stocks with the S&P 500 index logging a rare eight straight down days. (more…)

Weekly Update

Market headwinds


Published October 28, 2016

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While earnings have been generally better than expected so far in this earnings season, stocks have continued to struggle finding enough buyers to push higher. Indeed, small and midcap stocks have broken downward as investors pull back on taking risk. Of the companies that have reported through October 26, 67% have beaten analyst consensus estimates. Since 1999, the historical earnings “beat rate” is 62%.

(more…)

Weekly Update

Building an investment model


Published October 21, 2016

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 This week we pull the curtain back a bit on TimingCube‘s publisher, Fraser Partners, LLC, to discuss some of their non-TimingCube activities. When we build a Model, where do we start? What are we trying to achieve? (more…)

Weekly Update

What is the Ticker Tool?


Published October 14, 2016

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The Ticker Tool is a powerful way to see how relevant our signals are to a given security. The results you will see are the results of applying our Turbo signals to the security you input. Let’s look at an example. In this example we are curious whether the Turbo Model works well if we buy XLV when Turbo is on a Buy signal. We are thinking we will just short the broad market on a Sell signal, so we input the SPY (S&P 500 ETF). (more…)

Weekly Update

Markets on the cusp of …?


Published October 7, 2016

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October is crunch time for this stock market. Investors have been waiting all year for signs of a resumption of growth in corporate earnings. The slide below from JP Morgan displays the projections for a substantial uptick in that growth (see the brown-green bars of analyst projections marching upward). (more…)